Merida Rodríguez-Regal, Eida Rodriguez-Lema, Yaquelin Puchades-Izaguirre, Tania Casero-Rodríguez, Orlando Rodríguez-Carnero and Adrianet Acosta-González
Instituto de Investigaciones de la Caña de Azúcar (INICA), Carretera CUJAE, Km 2 ½, Boyeros, Habana, Cuba; merida.rodriguez@inica.azcuba.cu; merida.rregal@gmail.com
Climate change is expected to have an increasing influence on the diseases and insect pests that impact agriculture. The objective of this study was to identify the vulnerability of the sugarcane production systems in Mayabeque and Santiago de Cuba areas of Cuba, using indicators to assess the risk of disease outbreaks. The risk of introduction of the exotic disease Fiji leaf gall (Fijivirus fijiense) and the spread of the established diseases sugarcane mosaic (Potyvirus sacchari), leaf scald (Xanthomonas albilineans), smut (Sporisorium scitamineum), brown rust (Puccinia melanocephala) and orange rust (Puccinia kuehnii) were assessed based on the gaps and vulnerabilities of national and territorial characteristics in the sugarcane production system. Ten indicators were used to assess the risk at the national level, categorised as high, medium and low. At the territorial level, six indicators have been used, categorised as low, medium, high and very high. The analysis of these indicators made it possible to characterise the phytosanitary risks of the farms studied and to determine the hazard thresholds for the occurrence of pests in the sugarcane production system.